外媒：中国经验是目前美国自救的唯一办法！若成为武汉，将是幸运的

 美国的城市会成为下一个武汉么?

“如果幸运的话或许可以。”

近日，《卫报》刊发美国两位科学家——蕾妮·C·沃思博（Renee C Wurth）与尼克·欧布拉多维奇（Nick Obradovich）的联合署名文章。文章中，《卫报》编辑大写加粗标出了这样一句话：学习武汉经验是我们防止国家陷入历史性灾难的唯一办法。

 

 

开篇，两位作者旗帜鲜明地亮出了自己的观点：现如今，一个选择题摆在我们面前。我们可以学习武汉近期的经验，学习中国应对冠状病毒的经验。或者我们重蹈覆辙，重演1918年大流感的悲剧。

If we don't learn from history, we're doomed to repeat it. 
Today we have a choice. We can learn from the recent past – from the experience of Wuhan, China's fight against the coronavirus – or we can repeat the distant past, ending up with a pandemic reminiscent of the 1918 Spanish flu.

文章认为，美国的处境很危险，唯有像中国一样迅速采取措施，少玩一些华而不实的政治游戏才能自救。

尽管目前武汉新冠病毒确诊病例数最多，但如果我们美国沿着现在的道路继续向前，在应对大流感的过程中，蓄意不设防、 做一些徒有其表的攀比、搞政治活动、犹豫不决、治理无能，那么我们只有最幸运的城市才能跟武汉有可比性。

 

迅速从武汉经验中学习，是阻止我们国家陷入历史性灾难的唯一途径。

 

Though Wuhan has had the most cases of the coronavirus so far, if we continue much further along our national path of purposeful unpreparedness, specious comparisons, politicking, hesitation and ineptitude in our response to the pandemic, only our most lucky cities will be comparable to Wuhan.

 

Learning from Wuhan's recent past – and rapidly acting on those lessons – is the only way we can prevent our nation from driving itself into a historic catastrophe.

为何中国经验是行之有效的？

文中的两位笔者先进行了数据分析。

武汉有1100万人，累积确诊病例有6.7万，占总人口的0.6%。尽管在疫情期间获得准确的数据很难，但经世界卫生组织(WHO)的实地考察报告证实，该市的数据是可信的。

In a city of nearly 11 million, Wuhan's approximately 67,000 cases amount to just 0.6% of its population. And despite the difficulty of obtaining accurate data amid the crisis, the World Health Organization (WHO)ground reports verify the numbers coming out of the city as credible. Given the (relatively high) estimated rates of transmissibility of this virus, how did Chinese officials in Wuhan keep it from spreading more rapidly?

这种病毒的传播率相对较高，中国官员是如何阻止它进一步快速传播的呢?两位笔者进行了深入的分析。在最早期阶段，武汉地方政府应行动迟缓，导致病毒未能有效控制给现代医疗造成很大压力。从武汉考察后，世界卫生组织的官员得出结论：这种病毒可以无症状传播，使其传播率最大化。

但当如狼似虎的病毒要蔓延到中国其它城市时，中国政府采取了严密的社会隔离措施，与此同时，免费提供病毒检测，试图减缓病毒传播。

As soon as it was clear that the virus was swamping healthcare in Wuhan and threatening to engulf China more broadly, the Chinese government implemented radical social distancing measures, coupled with abundant free testing, attempting to slow the virus's spread.

为控制疫情，1月23日，武汉宣布关闭所有离汉通道。

对外交通停运，停止公共交通和驾驶，强制戴口罩，取消社交聚会，要求居家隔离——这些随即被证明不足以阻止病毒的蔓延。

Yet, even these social distancing measures – stopping outbound transportation, stalling public transit and driving, implementing mandatory mask-wearing, cancelling social gatherings, and requiring home quarantines – proved insufficient to halt the expansion of the virus.

后来，中国政府进一步采取了大胆的措施。

文章称，2月1日，武汉转为了集中隔离。这一举措至关重要，事后被证明有效阻止了病毒向一小部分群体继续扩散。

Then, on 1 February, Wuhan switched to centralized quarantine, a decision that research has shown was essential in containing the spread of the virus to such a small portion of the city's population.

作者认为，原本事态会非常恶劣。中国官员当时的果断行动，挽救了数万人的生命。这座城市的封锁政策为世界其它地区战胜病毒提供了宝贵的信息和时间。

Still, it could have been much, much worse. Chinese officials saved tens of thousands of lives by acting as decisively as they did, when they did. And the city's path to containment has provided invaluable information and time for the rest of the world to get ahead of the virus.

 

 

△无干预状态下，病情传播曲线陡然升高；而围堵干预策略下，曲线平稳走低。

中国经验对美国的指导意义是什么？

在美国，我们否认、淡化、拖延。没有实质性的迹象可以表明，美国愿意采取根本措施来减缓病毒的传播。

In the US, we're following...strategy of deny, downplay and delay without substantial indication that we'll be willing to take the radical measures necessary to slow the spread of the virus.

不作为的每一天都增加了我们的医疗系统被这种长期疾病压垮的可能性。如果我们现在不行动，我们很快就会问：谁的命更值钱？美国大多数人都处于危险之中，我们没有时间可以浪费。

Each day of inaction increases the probability our healthcare systems become overwhelmed by the long-lasting sickness. If we don't act now, we'll soon be asking: whose life is worth more? With the majority of the nation at risk, we have no time to waste.

社会、公民和政府是时候统一行动了——包括在所有“社区传播”地区立即和强制性实行社会隔离，配套建立一些大规模的隔离区。现在是时候学习武汉经验了。

Now is the time for unified dramatic social, civic and governmental action – including immediate and mandatory social distancing in all areas with demonstrated community spread coupled with mass-scale quarantines. It's time to follow the good part of the Wuhan playbook.

中国把对抗病毒比作战争，动员全民抗疫。这是恰当的。否则，我们进一步逃避的代价将是，数十万我们所爱之人的死亡。

China used the analogy to war to mobilize its people's response to the virus. It's apt. The cost of further avoidance will be measured in the hundreds of thousands of ugly deaths of our loved ones.

我们没有人真正目睹过1918年的悲剧，我们可以想象中国政府如果没有在武汉采取行动，会发生多么可怕的事情。几个月前，我们都目睹了这场危机的开始，我们担心我们中的许多城市可能会像武汉一样糟糕。

Very few of us were alive to see the devastation of 1918, and we can only imagine the horrors of what could have happened had Wuhan not acted as they did. As we both watched this crisis start to unfold months ago, we worried that we might be on course for many of US cities to be as bad as Wuhan.

今天，我们意识到了：如果能成为武汉，我们将是幸运的。

Today we realize: we would be lucky to be Wuhan.

如果一个多月前，西方愿意认真研究中国经验，并采取行动，结果会是怎样？

《纽约时报》：
中国为西方国家赢取了时间
而他们却白白浪费了

一个月前，一些人在干什么？
一个月前，世界卫生组织点名表扬中国，认为中国采取行动时勇敢、灵活、迅速。西方媒体直接挑衅发问称：“中国是否向世卫组织施压，要求你们表扬中国？”
一个多月前，西方主流媒体《华尔街日报》忙着刊发文章，诋毁中国政府和中国人民抗击疫情的努力，并写上了《中国是真正的“亚洲病夫”》这种带有种族歧视色彩的耸人听闻标题。

疫情爆发后，西方以隔岸观火的心态看中国，认为远火与自己无关。

“当时中国是在全力抗击一个突如其来的可怕病毒，而西方国家提前几周就已经收到警告了。”

...while China had to contend with a nasty, sudden surprise, governments in the West have been on notice for weeks.

3月13日，《纽约时报》发布一篇评论员文章问：为什么这么多国家在过去数周时间眼睁睁地看着疫情蔓延，好像和他们没关系似的？

 

《纽约时报》评论员写道，他的经历和事实都表明，西方国家无视了中国的经验教训，失去了抗击疫情的最佳时机。

The attitude toward the coronavirus outbreak in the United States and much of Europe has been bizarrely reactive, if not outright passive — or that the governments in those regions have let pass their best chance to contain the virus's spread.

在全球疫情的危机时刻
中国选择了毫无保留

北京时间12日凌晨，世界卫生组织宣布：新冠肺炎疫情的爆发已经构成一次全球性“大流行”。这意味着疫情波及范围已相当广泛。12日下午3点，中国开了一次特殊的跨国会议，两个小时的会议中，话题事无巨细，分享中国经验。

在全球疫情的危机时刻，中国选择了毫无保留，中国急世界之所急。
如今，全球需要的是并肩作战，敌人是病毒。希望西方部分媒体少些偏见，多一些互鉴。